16 / 11 / 2022

EN-CN | INFINOX Week Ahead | 专注于美国零售销售和重要的英国数据

Translated into Simplified Chinese by Wordwide FX

专注于美国零售销售和重要的英国数据

· 美国零售销售和工业生产能否有助于支撑处境不佳的美元?另外,英镑交易者将会细致解读一连串的重要英国数据。

市场转而更加关注美国的数据是否会继续表明美国经济放慢的状况,并增加对美联储转向的投机。本周,美国零售销售和工业生产将带来更多指示。

另外,各主要经济体还将公布通胀和第三季度GDP数据。多个重要的英国数据将展现英国央行在日益增长的衰退压力下,管理经济的任务是多么艰巨。

关注:

  • 北美 – 美国零售销售、工业生产和地区联储调查。加拿大CPI也很重要。
  • 欧洲–  欧元区第3季度GDP,还有英国失业率、工资增长、CPI通胀数据和零售销售。
  • 亚洲– 日本第3季度GDP和核心CPI,还有澳大利亚失业率。
  • 拉美 – 哥伦比亚和智利第3季度GDP

北美

注意 预测是指最新可获得的共识预测 

美元(USD)

根据最新的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议,美联储是依据数据而采取行动。在CPI通胀数据几个月非同寻常地上升之后,该指标上周意外下降,巩固了对于美联储现在将开始减小其大举加息的预期。我们已经看到联邦基金利率期货将终端利率预期降低到远低于5%的水平。随后,各主要外汇货币对的美元调整现在已经成为必然,本周可能会继续。住房数据继续下行,令人失望,而零售销售预计将只显示轻微增长。

不过,考虑到通胀的负面冲击和随后的市场反应,美联储发言人本周会做出何种反应值得关注。在11月份FOMC会议上,美联储主席鲍威尔煞费苦心地强调,重要的不是经济运行的速度,而是终端利率的目标。各发言人对CPI数据的反应,对于解读有哪些动向可被视为美联储的鹰派态度软化转变,可能会很重要。美元走势将是反应性的。

加元(CAD)

加元正在随美元的下滑而回升(但不如其他主要货币)。不过,由于加拿大央行在其货币政策上已经谨慎有加,加元交易者将严密关注星期三的加拿大通胀数据。如果加拿大通胀跟随美国而动,则加元可能会出现震荡回落。

  • 美元/加元(USD/CAD) – 随着价格坚决下破1.3500支撑位,一个大的头肩顶图形已经形成。这意味着未来几周将会回调,向1.3020靠拢。颈线和短期的回调反弹失败,将关键阻力位留在了1.3500-13570之间。下一个支撑位是1.3225。

大宗商品

上周大宗商品坚定上涨。甚至在公布美国疲弱的CPI数据前,就有上行动力产生。不过,随着美国通胀下降,美国国债收益率已急剧下降。这拉低了实际收益率,如果情况延续,将加速黄金和白银等贵金属的进一步上涨。风险在于,如果市场情绪出现波动,短期超买的头寸有可能大幅平仓。不过,我们现在将价格的下跌视为买入贵金属的机会。

油价回升未果,但美联储货币政策鹰派态度软化的前景将有助于提升石油需求。由于交易情绪也高涨,至少在短期内有助于支撑油价。

  • 布伦特原油 – 过去一周,油价前景起伏不定,回升趋势被打破。市场随即反弹,前景再次改善,但目前不够坚决。位于99.50美元 – 101.20美元的阻力位本周面临压力。如果突破,波动的阶段将会结束。
  • 黄金 – 势头强劲的大幅反弹已经完全改变了中长期前景。整体维持在1735美元之上,暗示未来几个月将会向1855美元靠拢。本周回调的支撑位在1735美元上下。
  • 白银 – 突破21.25美元,看住下一个阻力位22.50美元。我们希望利用近期受到支撑的回调作为现在买入的机会。现在突破位于20.85美元/21.25美元的支撑范围是关键。 

华尔街

美国通胀率低于预期引发的华尔街大幅上涨,显示出股市与美联储态度转向密切相关。高增长的纳斯达克指数大幅跑赢更防守性的道琼斯指数,如果市场抓住早前美联储提前转向的前景不放,会给科技股留下大涨的空间。

  • 标普500 期货 – 突破3935阻力位,是开始试探主要下行趋势的一个关键走势。突破现在需要在3883/3935之间获得支撑,才能为下一轮上涨奠定基础。
  • 纳斯达克100期货 – 科技股指数最近几周表现落后,但如果出现持续的风险上涨,该指数相对表现可能迅速冲顶。收盘坚定向上突破11730的阻力位完成了一个基本图形,暗示上涨向12800靠近。构建对更高低点的支撑也是本周的关键。
  • 道指期货 – 过去一个月已经形成强劲的回升,现在已经打破主要的下跌趋势。由于势头强劲,我们利用价格的跌势作为买入机会,以试探下一个重要阻力位34245。32500/33100上下有良好支撑。

亚洲:

注意 预测是指最新可获得的共识预测 

日元

日元是11月份表现最好的主要货币,这是因为各主要经济体的债券收益率已开始下降,而且与长期稳定的日本国债收益率之间的利差收窄。如果收益率继续下降,我们可以预测日元在他国货币兑日元的主要交叉盘方面将继续回升。

  • USD/JPY – 关键性中期支撑位正被打破,该货币对的大幅修正现已打破了为期八个月的上涨趋势。未来几天可能出现出现一定的回撤,但对阻力的反应将是关键。初始阻力位在140.30/141.50。 
  • AUD/JPY – 由于日元的走强甚至超过了澳元的回升,澳元/日元回落。技术前景仍然不明,其实存在一个近几周形成的价格区间。在91.40上下开始出现支撑,而在95.00上方的阻力加强。  

澳元

澳元的表现一直相对较差,原因是澳大利亚联储行近期更加谨慎。不过,在美元大幅回调之后,情况有所回转。美联储的激进程度降低,对风险偏好形成支撑,澳元因此而受益。如果市场继续沿此方向运行,那么澳元的回升也将继续。

  • AUD/USD – 价格强劲回升突破0.6545已经完成了一个基本形态,暗示未来几周将回升至0.6820。重要的是看对回调的反应。颈线支撑位在0.6520/0.6545上下。

新西兰元

新西兰元在过去的一个月中的表现一直优于美元,甚至在最近美元调整之前也是如此。由于其他主要货币已经迎头赶上 ,新西兰元的表现却略显平淡。此外,如果新西兰联邦储备银行加入其他央行开始放松加息言论,需要注意观察其表现如何。不过就目前而言,新西兰元表现依然强劲。

  • NZD/USD – 在美元近期暴跌之前,价格就已经明显形成强劲的回升。该货币对正趋于借强劲的动能坚定上涨。这说明价格下跌是买入的机会,在0.5840/0.5940之间有良好支撑。站上0.6160将是下一个看涨突破。

本材料仅供一般参考,不打算作为(而且不应当被当做)金融、投资或其他建议,不应加以依赖。INFINOX没有获得授权提供投资建议。本材料中的任何意见都不构成INFINOX或者作者对任何特定投资、证券、交易或投资策略适合任何特定人士的推荐建议。

所有交易都有风险。

https://www.infinox.com/fsc/zh_cn/ix-intel/week-ahead-focus-on-us-retail-sales-and-tier-one-uk-data

Focus on US Retail Sales and tier-one UK data

By: Richard Perry

Can US Retail Sales and Industrial Production help to support an ailing USD? Elsewhere, GBP traders will wade through a flood of tier-one UK data.

The focus is increasingly turning to whether US data continues to paint a picture of economic slowdown in the US and increase speculation of a Fed pivot. US retail sales and industrial production will add more meat to the bones this week.

Elsewhere there is inflation and Q3 GDP for major economies. A raft of tier-one UK data will paint a picture of how tough the job is for the Bank of England to manage the economy through growing recession pressures.

Watch for:

  • North America – US Retail Sales, Industrial Production and regional Fed surveys. Canadian CPI is also important.
  • Europe – Eurozone Q3 GDP, along with UK unemployment, wage growth, CPI inflation and retail sales.
  • Asia – Japanese Q3 GDP and core CPI, with Australian unemployment.
  • LatAm – Q3 GDP for Colombia and Chile

North America

N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus 

US dollar (USD)

According to the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed is data-dependent. After months of surprises to the upside, last week’s surprise drop in CPI inflation has cemented expectations that the Fed will now begin to scale back on its aggressive policy tightening. Already we are seeing Fed Funds futures scaling back the terminal rate expectations to well below 5%. Subsequently, the momentum is certainly now with a USD correction on major forex pairs and could continue this week. Housing data continues to disappoint to the downside, whilst retail sales are expected to show only marginal growth.

However, given the inflation negative shock and subsequent market reaction, it will be worth keeping an eye on how Fed speakers react this week. In the November FOMC, Fed Chair Powell was at pains to emphasise it was not the pace of travel but the destination on the terminal rate that matters. Speakers reacting to the CPI print could be important to frame what is seen as a shift to a less hawkish Fed. USD moves will be reactive.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

CAD is rallying (although not as much as other major currencies) as the USD has slipped. However, with the Bank of Canada already more cautious in its monetary policy CAD traders will be watching Wednesday’s Canadian inflation reading with keen interest. If Canadian inflation follows that of the US, then there could be a volatile swing back lower on CAD.

  • USD/CAD – A big head and shoulders top has been completed on a decisive move below 1.3500 support. This implies a correction towards 1.3020 in the coming weeks. The neckline and a failed near-term pullback rally have left key resistance between 1.3500/13570. The next support is at 1.3225.

Commodities

There has been a decisive rally in commodities over the past week. Even before the soft US CPI print, there was a drive higher that was developing. However, with US inflation falling, US Treasury yields have fallen sharply. This has pulled real yields lower and if this continues, it will fuel further rallies for precious metals such as gold and silver. The risk is that there is potential for a sharp unwind from near-term overbought positioning if there is s swing in sentiment. However, we would now see weakness as a chance to buy precious metals.

Oil has failed in its recovery but the prospect of a less hawkish Fed monetary policy will help to encourage oil demand. With trading sentiment also on the upswing, this helps to underpin oil in the near term at least.

  • Brent Crude Oil – the outlook has been choppy in the past week, with the recovery trend being breached. The instant swing back higher has improved the outlook once more, but there is a lack of decisiveness right now. The resistance at $99.50/$101.20 could come under pressure this week. A breakout would end the choppy phase.
  • Gold – A massive rally with strong momentum has completely changed the medium to longer term outlook. A big base pattern above $1735 implies a rally towards $1855 in the coming months. The support for a pullback is around $1735 this week.
  • Silver – Breaking above $21.25 opens the next resistance at $22.50. We look to use near-term supported corrections as a chance to buy now. The breakout support band at $20.85/$21.25 is now key. 

Wall Street

The enormous rally on Wall Street that came from the lower-than-expected US inflation shows how finely tuned stocks have become to the Fed pivot narrative. Massive outperformance of the high-growth NASDAQ versus the more defensive Dow leaves scope for a significant tech rally if the market hangs on to the prospect of an earlier Fed pivot.

  • S&P 500 futures – The breakout above 3935 resistance is a key move that has opened a test of the primary downtrend. The breakout now needs to become supportive between 3883/3935 to build the basis for the next leg higher.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures – The tech index has been a laggard in recent weeks, but if there is a sustainable risk rally, it could storm towards the top of the relative performance charts. A decisive closing breakout above resistance at 11730 completes a base pattern and implies a recovery towards 12800. Building support of higher lows is key this week too.
  • Dow futures – A strong recovery has been building for the past month and has now broken the primary downtrend. With a strong momentum configuration, we look to use weakness as a chance to buy for a test of the next important resistance at 34245. Good support is around 32500/33100.

Asia:

N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus 

Japanese yen (JPY)

The JPY has been the best-performing major currency in November. This has come as bond yields for major economies have started to fall and spreads with the perennially static JGB yields have tightened. If yields continue to fall, we can expect the JPY to continue to recover on the XXXJPY major crosses.

  • USD/JPY – Crucial medium-term supports are being smashed as an enormous corrective move on the pair has now broken an eight-month uptrend. The move may see some kind of retracement in the coming days but the reaction to resistance will be key. Initial resistance is 140.30/141.50. 
  • AUD/JPY – As the JPY has strengthened even more so than a recovering AUD, we have seen a pull lower on AUD/JPY. The technical outlook remains choppy and effectively there is a trading range that has formed in recent weeks. Support starts around 91.40 with resistance strengthening above 95.00. 

Australian dollar (AUD)

AUD performance has been seeing relative underperformance as the Reserve Bank of Australia has been more cautious recently. However, it has clawed some of this back in the wake of the big USD correction. A less aggressive Fed is supportive of risk appetite and therefore the AUD benefits from this. If markets continue to take this line, then a rally on AUD can continue.

  • AUD/USD – A strong rally through 0.6545 has completed a base pattern that implies a recovery towards 0.6820 in the coming weeks. The important move will be the reaction to a pullback. Neckline support is around 0.6520/0.6545.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

The NZD has been consistently outperforming the USD for the past month, even before the recent USD correction set in. As other majors have played catch up there has been a slightly less impressive performance from the kiwi. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see how it performs if and when the RBNZ joins other central banks and begins to ease off the tightening rhetoric. For now though, performance remains strong.

  • NZD/USD – An impressive recovery had already been building strongly even before the USD meltdown recently. The pair is trending decisively higher on strong momentum. This suggests that weakness is a chance to buy, with good support between 0.5840/0.5940. Above 0.6160 would be the next bullish breakout.

https://www.infinox.com/fsc/en/ix-intel/week-ahead-focus-on-us-retail-sales-and-tier-one-uk-data

Can US Retail Sales and Industrial Production help to support an ailing USD? Elsewhere, GBP traders will wade through a flood of tier-one UK data.

The focus is increasingly turning to whether US data continues to paint a picture of economic slowdown in the US and increase speculation of a Fed pivot. US retail sales and industrial production will add more meat to the bones this week.

Elsewhere there is inflation and Q3 GDP for major economies. A raft of tier-one UK data will paint a picture of how tough the job is for the Bank of England to manage the economy through growing recession pressures.

Watch for:

  • North America – US Retail Sales, Industrial Production and regional Fed surveys. Canadian CPI is also important.
  • Europe – Eurozone Q3 GDP, along with UK unemployment, wage growth, CPI inflation and retail sales.
  • Asia – Japanese Q3 GDP and core CPI, with Australian unemployment.
  • LatAm – Q3 GDP for Colombia and Chile

North America

N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus 

US dollar (USD)

According to the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed is data-dependent. After months of surprises to the upside, last week’s surprise drop in CPI inflation has cemented expectations that the Fed will now begin to scale back on its aggressive policy tightening. Already we are seeing Fed Funds futures scaling back the terminal rate expectations to well below 5%. Subsequently, the momentum is certainly now with a USD correction on major forex pairs and could continue this week. Housing data continues to disappoint to the downside, whilst retail sales are expected to show only marginal growth.

However, given the inflation negative shock and subsequent market reaction, it will be worth keeping an eye on how Fed speakers react this week. In the November FOMC, Fed Chair Powell was at pains to emphasise it was not the pace of travel but the destination on the terminal rate that matters. Speakers reacting to the CPI print could be important to frame what is seen as a shift to a less hawkish Fed. USD moves will be reactive.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

CAD is rallying (although not as much as other major currencies) as the USD has slipped. However, with the Bank of Canada already more cautious in its monetary policy CAD traders will be watching Wednesday’s Canadian inflation reading with keen interest. If Canadian inflation follows that of the US, then there could be a volatile swing back lower on CAD.

  • USD/CAD – A big head and shoulders top has been completed on a decisive move below 1.3500 support. This implies a correction towards 1.3020 in the coming weeks. The neckline and a failed near-term pullback rally have left key resistance between 1.3500/13570. The next support is at 1.3225.

Commodities

There has been a decisive rally in commodities over the past week. Even before the soft US CPI print, there was a drive higher that was developing. However, with US inflation falling, US Treasury yields have fallen sharply. This has pulled real yields lower and if this continues, it will fuel further rallies for precious metals such as gold and silver. The risk is that there is potential for a sharp unwind from near-term overbought positioning if there is s swing in sentiment. However, we would now see weakness as a chance to buy precious metals.

Oil has failed in its recovery but the prospect of a less hawkish Fed monetary policy will help to encourage oil demand. With trading sentiment also on the upswing, this helps to underpin oil in the near term at least.

  • Brent Crude Oil – the outlook has been choppy in the past week, with the recovery trend being breached. The instant swing back higher has improved the outlook once more, but there is a lack of decisiveness right now. The resistance at $99.50/$101.20 could come under pressure this week. A breakout would end the choppy phase.
  • Gold – A massive rally with strong momentum has completely changed the medium to longer term outlook. A big base pattern above $1735 implies a rally towards $1855 in the coming months. The support for a pullback is around $1735 this week.
  • Silver – Breaking above $21.25 opens the next resistance at $22.50. We look to use near-term supported corrections as a chance to buy now. The breakout support band at $20.85/$21.25 is now key. 

Wall Street

The enormous rally on Wall Street that came from the lower-than-expected US inflation shows how finely tuned stocks have become to the Fed pivot narrative. Massive outperformance of the high-growth NASDAQ versus the more defensive Dow leaves scope for a significant tech rally if the market hangs on to the prospect of an earlier Fed pivot.

  • S&P 500 futures – The breakout above 3935 resistance is a key move that has opened a test of the primary downtrend. The breakout now needs to become supportive between 3883/3935 to build the basis for the next leg higher.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures – The tech index has been a laggard in recent weeks, but if there is a sustainable risk rally, it could storm towards the top of the relative performance charts. A decisive closing breakout above resistance at 11730 completes a base pattern and implies a recovery towards 12800. Building support of higher lows is key this week too.
  • Dow futures – A strong recovery has been building for the past month and has now broken the primary downtrend. With a strong momentum configuration, we look to use weakness as a chance to buy for a test of the next important resistance at 34245. Good support is around 32500/33100.

Asia:

N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus 

Japanese yen (JPY)

The JPY has been the best-performing major currency in November. This has come as bond yields for major economies have started to fall and spreads with the perennially static JGB yields have tightened. If yields continue to fall, we can expect the JPY to continue to recover on the XXXJPY major crosses.

  • USD/JPY – Crucial medium-term supports are being smashed as an enormous corrective move on the pair has now broken an eight-month uptrend. The move may see some kind of retracement in the coming days but the reaction to resistance will be key. Initial resistance is 140.30/141.50. 
  • AUD/JPY – As the JPY has strengthened even more so than a recovering AUD, we have seen a pull lower on AUD/JPY. The technical outlook remains choppy and effectively there is a trading range that has formed in recent weeks. Support starts around 91.40 with resistance strengthening above 95.00. 

Australian dollar (AUD)

AUD performance has been seeing relative underperformance as the Reserve Bank of Australia has been more cautious recently. However, it has clawed some of this back in the wake of the big USD correction. A less aggressive Fed is supportive of risk appetite and therefore the AUD benefits from this. If markets continue to take this line, then a rally on AUD can continue.

  • AUD/USD – A strong rally through 0.6545 has completed a base pattern that implies a recovery towards 0.6820 in the coming weeks. The important move will be the reaction to a pullback. Neckline support is around 0.6520/0.6545.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

The NZD has been consistently outperforming the USD for the past month, even before the recent USD correction set in. As other majors have played catch up there has been a slightly less impressive performance from the kiwi. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see how it performs if and when the RBNZ joins other central banks and begins to ease off the tightening rhetoric. For now though, performance remains strong.

  • NZD/USD – An impressive recovery had already been building strongly even before the USD meltdown recently. The pair is trending decisively higher on strong momentum. This suggests that weakness is a chance to buy, with good support between 0.5840/0.5940. Above 0.6160 would be the next bullish breakout.

· 美国零售销售和工业生产能否有助于支撑处境不佳的美元?另外,英镑交易者将会细致解读一连串的重要英国数据。

市场转而更加关注美国的数据是否会继续表明美国经济放慢的状况,并增加对美联储转向的投机。本周,美国零售销售和工业生产将带来更多指示。

另外,各主要经济体还将公布通胀和第三季度GDP数据。多个重要的英国数据将展现英国央行在日益增长的衰退压力下,管理经济的任务是多么艰巨。

关注:

  • 北美 – 美国零售销售、工业生产和地区联储调查。加拿大CPI也很重要。
  • 欧洲–  欧元区第3季度GDP,还有英国失业率、工资增长、CPI通胀数据和零售销售。
  • 亚洲– 日本第3季度GDP和核心CPI,还有澳大利亚失业率。
  • 拉美 – 哥伦比亚和智利第3季度GDP

北美

注意 预测是指最新可获得的共识预测 

美元(USD)

根据最新的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议,美联储是依据数据而采取行动。在CPI通胀数据几个月非同寻常地上升之后,该指标上周意外下降,巩固了对于美联储现在将开始减小其大举加息的预期。我们已经看到联邦基金利率期货将终端利率预期降低到远低于5%的水平。随后,各主要外汇货币对的美元调整现在已经成为必然,本周可能会继续。住房数据继续下行,令人失望,而零售销售预计将只显示轻微增长。

不过,考虑到通胀的负面冲击和随后的市场反应,美联储发言人本周会做出何种反应值得关注。在11月份FOMC会议上,美联储主席鲍威尔煞费苦心地强调,重要的不是经济运行的速度,而是终端利率的目标。各发言人对CPI数据的反应,对于解读有哪些动向可被视为美联储的鹰派态度软化转变,可能会很重要。美元走势将是反应性的。

加元(CAD)

加元正在随美元的下滑而回升(但不如其他主要货币)。不过,由于加拿大央行在其货币政策上已经谨慎有加,加元交易者将严密关注星期三的加拿大通胀数据。如果加拿大通胀跟随美国而动,则加元可能会出现震荡回落。

  • 美元/加元(USD/CAD) – 随着价格坚决下破1.3500支撑位,一个大的头肩顶图形已经形成。这意味着未来几周将会回调,向1.3020靠拢。颈线和短期的回调反弹失败,将关键阻力位留在了1.3500-13570之间。下一个支撑位是1.3225。

大宗商品

上周大宗商品坚定上涨。甚至在公布美国疲弱的CPI数据前,就有上行动力产生。不过,随着美国通胀下降,美国国债收益率已急剧下降。这拉低了实际收益率,如果情况延续,将加速黄金和白银等贵金属的进一步上涨。风险在于,如果市场情绪出现波动,短期超买的头寸有可能大幅平仓。不过,我们现在将价格的下跌视为买入贵金属的机会。

油价回升未果,但美联储货币政策鹰派态度软化的前景将有助于提升石油需求。由于交易情绪也高涨,至少在短期内有助于支撑油价。

  • 布伦特原油 – 过去一周,油价前景起伏不定,回升趋势被打破。市场随即反弹,前景再次改善,但目前不够坚决。位于99.50美元 – 101.20美元的阻力位本周面临压力。如果突破,波动的阶段将会结束。
  • 黄金 – 势头强劲的大幅反弹已经完全改变了中长期前景。整体维持在1735美元之上,暗示未来几个月将会向1855美元靠拢。本周回调的支撑位在1735美元上下。
  • 白银 – 突破21.25美元,看住下一个阻力位22.50美元。我们希望利用近期受到支撑的回调作为现在买入的机会。现在突破位于20.85美元/21.25美元的支撑范围是关键。 

华尔街

美国通胀率低于预期引发的华尔街大幅上涨,显示出股市与美联储态度转向密切相关。高增长的纳斯达克指数大幅跑赢更防守性的道琼斯指数,如果市场抓住早前美联储提前转向的前景不放,会给科技股留下大涨的空间。

  • 标普500 期货 – 突破3935阻力位,是开始试探主要下行趋势的一个关键走势。突破现在需要在3883/3935之间获得支撑,才能为下一轮上涨奠定基础。
  • 纳斯达克100期货 – 科技股指数最近几周表现落后,但如果出现持续的风险上涨,该指数相对表现可能迅速冲顶。收盘坚定向上突破11730的阻力位完成了一个基本图形,暗示上涨向12800靠近。构建对更高低点的支撑也是本周的关键。
  • 道指期货 – 过去一个月已经形成强劲的回升,现在已经打破主要的下跌趋势。由于势头强劲,我们利用价格的跌势作为买入机会,以试探下一个重要阻力位34245。32500/33100上下有良好支撑。

亚洲:

注意 预测是指最新可获得的共识预测 

日元

日元是11月份表现最好的主要货币,这是因为各主要经济体的债券收益率已开始下降,而且与长期稳定的日本国债收益率之间的利差收窄。如果收益率继续下降,我们可以预测日元在他国货币兑日元的主要交叉盘方面将继续回升。

  • USD/JPY – 关键性中期支撑位正被打破,该货币对的大幅修正现已打破了为期八个月的上涨趋势。未来几天可能出现出现一定的回撤,但对阻力的反应将是关键。初始阻力位在140.30/141.50。 
  • AUD/JPY – 由于日元的走强甚至超过了澳元的回升,澳元/日元回落。技术前景仍然不明,其实存在一个近几周形成的价格区间。在91.40上下开始出现支撑,而在95.00上方的阻力加强。  

澳元

澳元的表现一直相对较差,原因是澳大利亚联储行近期更加谨慎。不过,在美元大幅回调之后,情况有所回转。美联储的激进程度降低,对风险偏好形成支撑,澳元因此而受益。如果市场继续沿此方向运行,那么澳元的回升也将继续。

  • AUD/USD – 价格强劲回升突破0.6545已经完成了一个基本形态,暗示未来几周将回升至0.6820。重要的是看对回调的反应。颈线支撑位在0.6520/0.6545上下。

新西兰元

新西兰元在过去的一个月中的表现一直优于美元,甚至在最近美元调整之前也是如此。由于其他主要货币已经迎头赶上 ,新西兰元的表现却略显平淡。此外,如果新西兰联邦储备银行加入其他央行开始放松加息言论,需要注意观察其表现如何。不过就目前而言,新西兰元表现依然强劲。

  • NZD/USD – 在美元近期暴跌之前,价格就已经明显形成强劲的回升。该货币对正趋于借强劲的动能坚定上涨。这说明价格下跌是买入的机会,在0.5840/0.5940之间有良好支撑。站上0.6160将是下一个看涨突破。

本材料仅供一般参考,不打算作为(而且不应当被当做)金融、投资或其他建议,不应加以依赖。INFINOX没有获得授权提供投资建议。本材料中的任何意见都不构成INFINOX或者作者对任何特定投资、证券、交易或投资策略适合任何特定人士的推荐建议。

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